CodeSOTAIntelligence

OpenRouter Usage & Churn

ort.fabryka.ai · updated 2026-08-05 02:15 UTC · market memo → · vendor migration → · normalized → · apps / demand → · east vs west →
635 days of history 2024-11-09 → 2026-08-05 792 models tracked

Top vendors — daily tokens, 7-day avg (full history, billions)

Substitution — Claude Opus version migration (stacked, 7-day avg, billions)

Each band is one version. Watch usage hand off up the stack: 4.5→4.6→4.7→4.8 — the family total holds/grows while users rotate to the newest release (in-family retention, not churn).

Vendor churn & market share (30d vs 30d, tokens)

vendorrecentΔ%shareshare Δ
deepseek44.7T+30%22.0%+2.7pp
xiaomi36.3T+88%17.9%+7.0pp
anthropic25.6T-10%12.6%-3.2pp
google18.1T+7%8.9%-0.5pp
z-ai16.1T+70%7.9%+2.6pp
openai15.8T+36%7.8%+1.3pp
minimax13.4T-26%6.6%-3.5pp
tencent11.2T-26%5.5%-3.0pp
stepfun5.9T+18%2.9%+0.1pp
moonshotai5.9T+86%2.9%+1.1pp
qwen3.7T-0%1.8%-0.3pp
x-ai2.1T+292%1.0%+0.7pp
mistralai1.4T+7%0.7%-0.0pp
meta-llama614.1B+2%0.3%-0.0pp

Family churn & substitution (30d vs 30d) — version migration nets out

familyrecentΔ%lead version (stickiness)substitution
Xiaomi MiMo33.8T+98%MiMo-V2.5 100%
DeepSeek DeepSeek Flash29.6T+43%DeepSeek V4 Flash 0423 88%
Z.ai GLM15.8T+75%GLM 5.2 89%v5.1 → v5.2
DeepSeek DeepSeek Pro12.8T+36%DeepSeek V4 Pro 100%
Anthropic Claude Opus12.7T-32%Claude Opus 4.8 49%
MiniMax MiniMax M312.6T-25%MiniMax M3 100%
Tencent Hy311.2T-26%Hy3 95%v— → v—
nvidia/nemotron ultra 550b a5510.6T+219%Nemotron 3 Ultra 550B 100%
Google Gemini Flash8.8T+5%Gemini 3 Flash Preview 47%v3.5 → v3.6
Anthropic Claude Sonnet8.8T+9%Claude Sonnet 5 50%v4.6 → v5
StepFun Step Flash5.9T+18%Step 3.7 Flash 100%v3.5 → v3.7
Google Gemini Flash Lite5.6T+6%Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite 47%v3.1 → v3.1

Model lifecycle distribution

stage#volumeshare of trackedexamples
LAUNCHING182.1T/d
DeepSeek V4 Flas, GPT-5.6 Luna, Hunter Alpha
GROWING6550.4B/d
Owl Alpha, Ling-2.6-flash, GPT-5 Chat
MATURE153.3T/d
DeepSeek V4 Flas, Hy3, DeepSeek V4 Pro
DECLINING1082.6T/d
MiMo-V2.5, MiniMax M3, Step 3.7 Flash
DEAD3269.3B/d
Claude Opus 4.7, GLM 5.1, MiniMax M2.5

📈 Gaining by spend (USD, 7d vs 7d)

modeltiernowΔ ($)
Claude Opus 4.8paid$6.7M+$4.4M
MiniMax M3paid$892.9K+$876.2K
DeepSeek V4 Propaid$822.2K+$258.6K
Claude Opus 4.8 (Fast)paid$379.8K+$197.1K
DeepSeek V4 Flash 0423paid$585.0K+$164.7K
Step 3.7 Flashpaid$189.6K+$149.5K
MiMo-V2.5paid$341.4K+$100.7K
GPT-5.1paid$173.2K+$80.4K
Gemini 3 Flash Previewfree$650.9K+$66.7K
GLM 5paid$171.8K+$34.0K
Gemini 2.5 Flashpaid$279.0K+$26.8K
Qwen3 235B A22B Instruct 2507paid$82.6K+$26.1K

📉 Churning by spend (USD, 7d vs 7d)

modeltiernowΔ ($)
Claude Opus 4.7paid$7.9M−$3.9M
Claude Opus 4.6paid$2.4M−$531.9K
MiMo-V2.5-Propaid$225.4K−$387.4K
Claude Sonnet 4.6paid$5.8M−$362.5K
Kimi K2.6paid$229.4K−$110.3K
Claude Opus 4.5paid$241.3K−$102.5K
Claude Opus 4.7 (Fast)paid$127.9K−$96.5K
MiniMax M2.7paid$88.5K−$67.1K
Gemini 3.1 Pro Previewfree$691.3K−$51.5K
GPT-5.5 Propaid$106.8K−$49.2K
GPT-5.5paid$2.4M−$49.1K
GLM 4.7paid$39.7K−$48.7K

📈 Long-term gainers (tokens, 30d vs 30d)

modeltiernowΔ (tokens)
MiMo-V2.5paid33.8T+16.7T
GLM 5.2paid14.0T+8.1T
Nemotron 3 Ultra 550B A55Bfree10.6T+7.3T
DeepSeek V4 Flash 0423paid26.1T+5.5T
Claude Sonnet 5paid4.4T+3.9T
DeepSeek V4 Propaid12.8T+3.4T
Claude Fable 5paid1.5T+1.0T
Step 3.7 Flashpaid5.9T+940.6B
Gemini 3.1 Flash Litepaid2.4T+592.1B
North Mini Codefree800.1B+518.6B
Gemma 4 31B (free)free1.6T+518.4B
Laguna Xs 2.1free575.7B+514.5B

📉 Long-term churn (tokens, 30d vs 30d)

modeltiernowΔ (tokens)
Hy3 previewfree517.6B−14.7T
Claude Opus 4.7paid5.6T−4.3T
MiniMax M3paid12.6T−4.2T
Claude Sonnet 4.6paid4.0T−3.0T
DeepSeek V3.2paid1.6T−2.0T
GPT-5.5paid2.0T−1.7T
GLM 5.1paid475.6B−1.5T
Laguna M.1free1.4T−1.3T
Claude Opus 4.8paid6.3T−987.1B
GPT-4o-minipaid1.1T−634.9B
Gpt Oss 120Bfree1.6B−614.9B
Kimi K2.6paid1.2T−582.1B