CodeSOTAIntelligence

OpenRouter Usage & Churn

ort.fabryka.ai · updated 2026-11-09 02:11 UTC · market memo → · vendor migration → · normalized → · apps / demand → · east vs west →
731 days of history 2024-11-09 → 2026-11-09 910 models tracked

Top vendors — daily tokens, 7-day avg (full history, billions)

Substitution — Claude Opus version migration (stacked, 7-day avg, billions)

Each band is one version. Watch usage hand off up the stack: 4.5→4.6→4.7→4.8 — the family total holds/grows while users rotate to the newest release (in-family retention, not churn).

Vendor churn & market share (30d vs 30d, tokens)

vendorrecentΔ%shareshare Δ
deepseek272.2T+75%38.3%+10.8pp
z-ai81.7T+8%11.5%-1.9pp
openai68.0T-10%9.6%-3.8pp
anthropic59.5T+127%8.4%+3.7pp
tencent56.5T+3%8.0%-1.8pp
stepfun35.0T+894%4.9%+4.3pp
xiaomi32.0T-26%4.5%-3.2pp
google24.8T-6%3.5%-1.2pp
moonshotai16.6T+108%2.3%+0.9pp
minimax16.6T+170%2.3%+1.3pp
meta14.0T+46%2.0%+0.3pp
qwen11.3T+31%1.6%+0.1pp
upstage7.6T+12%1.1%-0.1pp
stealth4.3T-93%0.6%-9.6pp

Family churn & substitution (30d vs 30d) — version migration nets out

familyrecentΔ%lead version (stickiness)substitution
DeepSeek DeepSeek Flash (batch252.5T+95%DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 10 56%vV4 0731 → vV4.1 1017
Z.ai GLM Flash (batch)57.1T+3%GLM 5.3 Flash (batch) 100%
Tencent Hy444.0T+5%Hy4 preview 71%v— → v—
OpenAI GPT Luna (batch)43.9T-14%GPT-6 Luna (batch) 75%v5.6 → v6
StepFun Step34.2T+961%Step 5 Preview 100%
Anthropic Claude Opus (batch)32.3T+150%Claude Opus 5.5 (batch 91%v5 → v5.5
Xiaomi MiMo Flash24.4T+4%MiMo-V2.6-Flash 100%
Z.ai GLM (batch)23.4T+22%GLM 5.3 (batch) 83%v5.2 → v5.3
nvidia/nemotron ultra 550b a5519.0T-15%Nemotron 3 Ultra 550B 100%
typesafe/jev18.8T+118%Jev 1.13 70%
OpenAI GPT Sol (batch)16.0T+32%GPT-6.1 Sol (batch) 82%v5.6 → v6.1
Anthropic Claude Sonnet (batch14.9T+56%Claude Sonnet 5.5 (bat 73%v5 → v5.5
Tencent Hy312.5T-6%Hy3 100%

Model lifecycle distribution

stage#volumeshare of trackedexamples
LAUNCHING2822.7T/d
DeepSeek V4.1 Fl, Space Bunny Alph, Ox Alpha
GROWING6657.5B/d
Owl Alpha, Qwen3.8 27B (bat, Mistral Nemo
MATURE102.5T/d
Claude Opus 5.5 , Jev 1.13, Muse Spark 1.3 C
DECLINING16613.0T/d
DeepSeek V4.1 Fl, GLM 5.3 Flash (b, GPT-6 Luna (batc
DEAD48178.5B/d
Gemini 3.7 Flash, Claude Opus 5 (b, Gemini 3.6 Flash

📈 Gaining by spend (USD, 7d vs 7d)

modeltiernowΔ ($)
Claude Opus 4.8 (batch)paid$3.3M+$2.2M
MiniMax M3 (batch)paid$666.2K+$653.7K
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0423paid$1.8M+$563.8K
MiMo-V2.5paid$1.0M+$305.8K
Claude Opus 4.8 (Fast)paid$379.8K+$197.1K
Step 3.7 Flashpaid$189.6K+$149.5K
DeepSeek V4 Flash 0423paid$380.3K+$107.1K
Hy3 previewfree$616.0K+$61.3K
GPT-5.1 (batch)paid$86.6K+$40.2K
GLM 5paid$184.3K+$36.5K
Gemini 3 Flash Preview (batch)free$325.4K+$33.3K
Qwen3 235B A22B Instruct 2507paid$98.5K+$33.3K

📉 Churning by spend (USD, 7d vs 7d)

modeltiernowΔ ($)
Claude Opus 4.7 (batch)paid$3.9M−$1.9M
MiMo-V2.5-Propaid$253.1K−$432.6K
Claude Opus 4.6 (batch)paid$1.2M−$265.9K
Claude Sonnet 4.6 (batch)paid$2.9M−$181.2K
Kimi K2.6paid$263.9K−$122.7K
Claude Opus 4.7 (Fast)paid$127.9K−$96.5K
GLM 4.7paid$57.8K−$72.5K
MiniMax M2.7paid$68.8K−$52.2K
Claude Opus 4.5 (batch)paid$120.7K−$51.3K
GLM 5.1paid$431.9K−$45.8K
Claude Sonnet 4paid$135.7K−$38.8K
Qwen3.6 Pluspaid$37.8K−$34.8K

📈 Long-term gainers (tokens, 30d vs 30d)

modeltiernowΔ (tokens)
Step 5 Previewfree34.2T+30.9T
Claude Opus 5.5 (batch)paid29.3T+22.2T
GPT-6 Luna (batch)paid33.0T+18.5T
GPT-6.1 Sol (batch)paid13.0T+10.8T
Claude Haiku 5.5 (batch)paid10.6T+10.0T
Claude Sonnet 5.5 (batch)paid10.8T+8.6T
GLM 5.3 (batch)paid19.3T+6.8T
Jev 1.13paid13.1T+4.5T
Muse Spark 1.3 Contributorpaid12.3T+4.4T
Solar Mini 4paid5.3T+4.2T
MiMo-V2.6-Propaid6.1T+2.9T
GLM 5.3 Flash (batch)paid57.1T+1.8T

📉 Long-term churn (tokens, 30d vs 30d)

modeltiernowΔ (tokens)
GPT-5.6 Luna (batch)paid10.9T−25.5T
DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 (batch)paid17.1T−16.6T
MiMo-V2.5paid866.8B−14.9T
Hy4 previewfree31.2T−10.6T
GPT-5.6 Sol (batch)paid1.6T−5.6T
DeepSeek V4 Flash 0423paid11.6T−3.5T
Nemotron 3 Ultra 550B A55Bfree19.0T−3.4T
Solar Pro 4paid2.3T−3.3T
GPT-6 Astra (batch)paid1.8T−3.2T
Claude Sonnet 5 (batch)paid2.3T−3.1T
GLM 5.2 (batch)paid4.1T−2.5T
Gemini 3.8 Flash (batch)paid6.9T−2.3T